COVID-19 Policies & Outcomes: Learning Online

As the third month of the war against the COVID-19 pandemic draws to a close, we are learning more and more about our “invisible enemy” and how best to defeat it.  Many will acknowledge that the strategy of “flattening the curve” of infections and hospitalizations has bought us time to manufacture or otherwise acquire and distribute necessary medical supplies and equipment, and time to organize the medical front lines to cope with the number of COVID-19 cases.  It appears that this strategy is preventing hospitals, dedicated doctors, and nurses from being overwhelmed. 

How Fast to Restart the Economy
However, as scientists obtain more and more data, sharp disagreements are emerging about how we should proceed from here. The Coronavirus Task Force Team, and in particular, physicians Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, recommend a gradual startup of the American economy.  They are concerned that if we are not cautious, our gains in curve flattening could be reversed quickly. However, a significant number of influential people are questioning the wisdom of a prolonged, gradual startup.

Like many Americans, I am concerned that the indirect effects of social distancing and the economic shutdown may have more devastating long-term effects than the COVID-19 virus itself.  So, I have been wondering which strategy for restarting our economy will be wisest.  This decision requires answers to many questions, many of which need more data.  Especially, we need to know the extent of COVID-19 infections already represented in the US (and in other nations) and the rate of spread.  Thankfully, answers appear to be coming almost daily.  

Online Learning in Science, Technology, and Politics
There is no doubt we are living in a high-anxiety period.  As elderly, “at-risk persons,” Abby and I can easily feel anxious.  From a distance, there is anxiety within the homes of our son and daughter.  We have talked about our faith and how we need to draw upon our belief in God and His Word and learn how to apply it daily.  The Judeo-Christian Scriptures teach us that the wise do not “bury their heads in the sand.” 

In 1 Chronicles 12: 32, there is a praiseworthy reference to the sons of Issachar, men who understood the times, with knowledge of what Israel should do.  If we want our children and grandchildren to develop into men and women who “understand the times” and know what to do, we ought to encourage them to learn from the various media available and to help them to mentally and spiritually process the information.  The best medicine against anxiety is good information integrated with a biblical worldview.  In an earlier article, I discussed some factors that we need to take into consideration in an effort to understand COVID conundrums.

One lesson that primary school and college students, and all of us can learn from news broadcasts and online data is the amazing speed of progress in the “war” against the virus.  Within a few weeks, American industrial capacity has been harnessed into the manufacture of masks, ventilators, and other medical supplies.  At the same time, there has been an explosion of testing for infection, antibody and antigen testing, and distribution of equipment and methodology to thousands of locations across the country.  Reports and a great volume of data, updated in real time or daily in many cases, are available with the click of your computer mouse.

A case in point of science and technology in action was the excellent presentation by Bill Bryan who leads the Science and Technology Directorate at the US Department of Homeland Security. Bryan reported on the progress of laboratory studies in which suspended COVID-19 virus particles were subjected in contact with various media and subjected to treatments such as disinfectants, light, and ultraviolet light to determine how long it would take to kill the virus.  By watching this session, viewers can see science and technology in action.  A very interested and engaged President Trump and members of the news media questioned Mr. Bryan  about how their results should be factored into safe human practices and policy for restarting the economy.  If you are interested, go to C-SPAN recording of Mr. Bryan’s presentation (skip forward 20 minutes if you don’t care to watch the introductory presidential report).

Approach to Restart Economy:  Lesson from Sweden?
As part of my personal effort to learn more about how our economy should be restarted, I asked a question, “Which nation has followed the wiser strategy in dealing with the COVID pandemic, the United States or Sweden?”  Here’s some of what I am finding and some links for you to do more of your own research.

First, for some background on Sweden’s approach to combat COVID-19, check out this interview on the Laura Ingraham Angle, on April 23.  She presents virus mortality data from Sweden which has instituted a very loose lock-down policy compared to other European countries and with the United States.  Therefore, Sweden is considered an outlier in its policy but no so much in regard to the outcome.  While Ingraham makes it clear that the overall outcome remains to be seen, she advises against ignoring Sweden as the US decides its path to “normal.”

Then, Ingraham interviews Johan Norberg, senior fellow at the Cato Institute.  He points out that, in spite of a much more rigid tracking and data recording of deaths in Sweden, a larger percentage of adults at age 70 or older, and a large number of deaths in nursing homes, the mortality in Sweden, though slightly higher than that of the US, is much lower than neighboring European countries with more stringent lock-downs.  Norberg claims that the lock-down approach to “flatten the curve” may have the unfortunate effect of prolonging the deaths due to COVID-19.  In other words, in the final analysis, the disease is going to do what it does and the number of deaths will not be affected even if we try to affect the timeline by behavioral modification.  The prediction is that Sweden will reach “herd immunity” in approximately 2-3 weeks and then they will be finished with the virus.

Will Norberg’s prediction bear itself out?  Is “herd immunity” a factor that will also be verified by the passage of time and more antibody testing?   What can we learn from differences in how effective the reopening policies of different states (e.g. Georgia) are in avoiding infections and deaths.  I will leave you with these questions and refer you to excellent source of data to consult.  One source which is updated at least daily is the Our World in Data website for COVID-19.  This site provides abundant charts and tables with explanatory notes and commentary.  Another source is the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.

How About You?
Are you confused, anxious, or just tiring of the constant flow of information and not being sure what to believe.  I recommend that you be sure to maintain a strong faith by daily time in God’s Word and whatever connections that are possible with other people of faith.  In this way, you will not miss important lessons on the power of prayer and faith that God may want to teach you during this time.  Obviously, this pandemic is not the first great challenge Americans have faced.  A great book to gain a wider perspective on the hand of divine providence in American history is Michael Medved’s The American Miracle (Crown Forum). 

Also, try to stay informed by using a variety of news and online data sources.  Develop your own questions and do the research by examining the current data for yourself.  In this way, maybe we can exemplify and help our children and grandchildren to develop into men and women who “understand the times” and know what to do.